IPCC AR6 SYR LR Figure 4.3 (b)

Every region faces more severe or frequent compound and/or cascading climate risks in the near term. Changes in risk result from changes in the degree of the hazard, the population exposed, and the degree of vulnerability of people, assets, or ecosystems. This panel shows the projected median probability in the year 2040 for extreme water levels resulting from a combination of mean sea level rise, tides and storm surges, which have a historical 1% average annual probability. A peak-over-threshold (99.7%) method was applied to the historical tide gauge observations. This panel uses relative sea level projections under SSP2-4.5 for the year 2040. The absence of a circle indicates an inability to perform an assessment due to a lack of data, but does not indicate absence of increasing frequencies.

Figure AR6 SYR LR 4.3 (b): Increased frequency of extreme sea level events by 2040

Data download: IPCC AR6 SYR LR Figure 4.3(b) (Excel Workbook, ~30 KB)

Data Citation:
IPCC, 2025. IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report LR Figure 4.3 (b): Increased frequency of extreme sea level events by 2040. Palisades, NY: Center for Integrated Earth System Information (CIESIN). https://doi.org/10.7927/5s2t-2j81. Accessed DAY MONTH YEAR.

Citation of IPCC Report:
IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 184 pp. https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.