IPCC AR6 WGIII SPM.4 (a)

Panel a shows global GHG emissions over 2015-2050 for four types of assessed modelled global pathways: - Trend from implemented policies: Pathways with projected near-term GHG emissions in line with policies implemented until the end of 2020 and extended with comparable ambition levels beyond 2030 (29 scenarios across categories C5-C7, Table SPM.1) 

- Limit to 2°C (>67%) or return warming to 1.5°C (>50%) after a high overshoot, NDCs until 2030: Pathways with GHG emissions until 2030 associated with the implementation of NDCs announced prior to COP26, followed by accelerated emissions reductions likely to limit warming to 2°C (C3b, Table SPM.1) or to return warming to 1.5°C with a probability of 50% or greater after high overshoot (subset of 42 scenarios from C2, Table SPM.1). 

- Limit to 2°C (>67%) with immediate action: Pathways that limit warming to 2°C (>67%) with immediate action after 202027 (C3a, Table SPM.1). 

- Limit to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot: Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (C1, Table SPM.1 C1). All these pathways assume immediate action after 2020. 

Past GHG emissions for 2010-2015 used to project global warming outcomes of the modelled pathways are shown by a black line [FOOTNOTE 33] and past global GHG emissions in 2015 and 2019 as assessed in Chapter 2 are shown by whiskers.

FOOTNOTE 33: See the Box SPM.1 for a description of the approach to project global warming outcomes of modelled pathways and its consistency between the climate assessment in AR6 WG I.

Please click here for image of all figures SPM.4 (a)

Data download: 
IPCC AR6 WGIII SPM.4 (a) (Excel workbook, ~ 2.64 KB)

SPM.4_Data_Processing_or_Treatment (Word document, ~ 15.34 KB)

Structural-Metadata-Data for Figure SPM.4 (Excel workbook, ~ 4.01 KB)

Citation:

Kriegler, E.; Krey, V.; Byers, E., 2022, Data for Figure SPM.4 (a) - Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group III Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Palisades, New York: Center for Integrated Earth System Information (CIESIN). https://doi.org/10.7927/v8z9-e152. Accessed YYYY-MM-DD.