IPCC AR6 WGIII TS.15 (a, b)

Decompositions of changes in historical residential energy emissions 1990-2019, changes in emissions projected by baseline scenarios for 2020-2050, and differences between scenarios in 2050 using scenarios from three models: IEA, IMAGE, and RECC

Figure TS.15 legend: RECC-LED data include only space heating and cooling and water heating in residential buildings (a) Global resolution, and (b) for nine world regions.

Emissions are decomposed using the equation "CO2 = Pop × (m2/Pop) × (EJ/m2) × (MtCO2/EJ) = Pop × Sufficiency × Efficiency × Renewable" which shows changes in driver variables of population, sufficiency (floor area per capita), efficiency (final energy per floor area), and renewables (GHG emissions per final energy). ‘Renewables’ is a summary term describing changes in GHG intensity of energy supply. 

Emission projections to 2050, and differences between scenarios in 2050, demonstrate mitigation potentials from the dimensions of the SER framework realised in each model scenario. In most regions, historical improvements in efficiency have been approximately matched by growth in floor area per capita. Implementing sufficiency measures that limit growth in floor area per capita, particularly in developed regions, reduces the dependence of climate mitigation on technological solutions. {Figure 9.5, Box 9.2}

Please click here for image of figure TS.15 (a, b)

Data download: 

IPCC AR6 WGIII TS.15 (a, b) (Excel workbook,~ 40.64KB)

Structural_MetaData_Data for Figure TS.15 (Excel workbook, ~5.16KB)

Data Citation:

Saheb, Y. ; Berrill, P.; Verez, D., 2022, Data for Figure TS.15 (a, b) - Technical Summary of Working Group III Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Palisades, New York: Center for Integrated Earth System Information (CIESIN). https://doi.org/10.7927/81aq-j161. Accessed YYYY-MM-DD